Titre: Copules des valeurs extrêmes et processus max-stables
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract: During the last decades, copulas have been increasingly used to model the dependence across several random variables such as the joint modelling of the intensity and the duration of rainfall storms. When the problem consists in modelling extreme values, i.e., only the tails of the distribution, the extreme value theory tells us that one should consider max-stable distributions and put some restrictions on the copulas to be used. Although the theory for multivariate extremes is well established, its foundation is usually introduced outside the copula framework. This paper tries to unify these two frameworks in a single view. Moreover the latest developments on spatial extremes and max-stable processes will be introduced. At first glance the use of copulas for spatial problems sounds a bit odd but since usually stochastic processes are observed at a finite number of locations, the inferential procedure is intrinsically multivariate. An application on the spatial modelling of extreme temperatures in Switzerland is given. Results show that the use of non extreme value based models can largely underestimate the spatial dependence and the assumptions made on the spatial dependence structure should be chosen with care.
منابع مشابه
Approche des Valeurs Extrêmes dans la Modélisation des Séries Financières
Résumé. Dans les années 60, les travaux de Mandelbrot sur les fluctuations boursières montrèrent que le modèle gaussien ne convenait pas pour décrire les rendements d’actifs. Mandelbrot (1963) puis Fama (1965) proposèrent la distribution Lévy-stable, dont les propriétés sont très proches de celles des distributions empiriques à queues lourdes, comme alternative pour modéliser les séries financi...
متن کاملOn the dynamic dependence between US and other developed stock markets: An extreme-value time-varying copula approach
This paper examines the dynamic dependence between American and four developed stock markets, namely, Japan, United Kingdom, Germany and France during a recent period including the global nancial crisis 2007-2009. The econometric approach is based on the extreme-value time-varying copula functions. Speci cally, the marginal distributions are reproduced by an extreme-value based model while the...
متن کاملTransient and Stationary Waiting Times in (max, +)-Linear Systems with Poisson Input
We consider a certain class of vectorial evolution equations, which are linear in the (max,+) semi-eld. They can be used to model several types of discrete event systems, in particular stochastic service systems where we assume that the arrival process of customers (tokens, jobs, etc.) is Poisson. Under natural Cramer type conditions on certain variables, we show that the expected waiting time ...
متن کاملThe expansion of Hall-Littlewood functions in the dual Grothendieck polynomial basis
A combinatorial expansion of the Hall-Littlewood functions into the Schur basis of symmetric functions was first given by Lascoux and Schützenberger, with their discovery of the charge statistic. A combinatorial expansion of stable Grassmannian Grothendieck polynomials into monomials was first given by Buch, using set-valued tableaux. The dual basis of the stable Grothendieck polynomials was gi...
متن کاملModélisation de la cognition sociale - Propositions autour de l'utilisation de schémas cognitifs
Ce travail de recherche est fondé sur une approche multidisciplinaire, comprenant les systèmes multi-agents utilisés pour modéliser des organisations et les interactions entre des acteurs organisationnels, les cartes cognitives pour représenter les croyances des agents artificiels et des schémas pour modéliser des structures cognitives de haut niveau. Cette recherche est fondée sur la reconnais...
متن کامل